Camen Design Forum

A look at the status quo is bleak

append delete Kroc

I feel as if my livelihood is being taken away from me, slowly at least anyway.

You see, we are just about to hit the third major computer industry 'compatibility break' in history. This is a generation-shift that occurs approximately every 20 years; a new technology and a 'new way of doing things' sweeps in and quickly makes the established 'way of doing things' obsolete and increasingly impractical. Technology changes every year of course, so the difference with these generation shifts is that 'the way of thinking' changes, severing compatibility with the past.

For example, the first generation shift occurred in the late '70s, centring around the availability of the Apple II computer. The "home micro" became a thing, and computers were no longer kits that one had to solder together. Productivity software appeared and the computer was no longer seen just as 'a complicated calculator' with reel-to-reel tape and line-printers as it was in the '60s.

This established what I will refer to as "the '80s way of doing things". The '80s was dominated by 8-bit productivity software on a dizzyingly wide variety of hardware, all largely incompatible.

The second generation shift occurred in 1996. This is the year that the Internet / 'Web overtook BBSes. I experienced one-side of this generation shift myself. In 1996 BBSes dropped dead and the PC + Internet very quickly established itself as 'the way of doing things'. The '80s way doing things suddenly become totally incompatible with this new model. '80s computers and their software were isolated silos of incompatibility, and BBS -- though an interconnected network -- was much the same. Your 1996 PC + AOL was an entirely different, inherently incompatible, ball game compared to your command line and dialing into each individual BBS.

That shift in 1996 established the generation of technology that has dominated for all of my life: Wintel. Nothing has truly changed since 1996 -- the technology has iteratively gotten more powerful and sophisticated, but 'the way of doing things' has never changed in this time. In 1996, I used Windows 95 to open Microsoft Word 6 and write a letter. In 2012, I can use Windows 7 to open Microsoft Word 2010 and write a letter, the graphics are a little different but the task is exactly the same. If I had time-warped from 1996 to now, it might look different, but I'd still recognise the Desktop and how to launch programmes and how to use the mouse. If I had time-warped from 1980 to 1996, then I would have next to no concept of how to operate the PC, there would be zero familiarity.

But now, the next generation shift is upon us. It is called iPhone, iPad, iOS, Android et al. It is a 'new way of doing things' that breaks all compatibility with the old way of doing things (mouse + keyboard).

Why is this a problem to me? Well, because the new way prevents me from outright doing many things I am used to be able to do at the moment.

If a PC is broken, I can load any software I want on to it, from external sources. I can take parts out of it and place them in other PCs. I can flexibly modify the PCs workings to solve any problem.

These new devices either have no flexibility, or are rapidly losing it. In many cases you cannot load any software from an external source of your choosing. You can only get software on the device on a strictly per-person basis, through an approved channel wholly dependent upon the machine working normally. This 'per-person basis' is the really troubling thing, why? Well it rules out a whole class of software that has long existed that is essential: portable / self-contained software that runs externally and doesn't integrate to the device permanently (does not have to be installed / uninstalled).

Portable and independently-functioning software covers the vast majority of the software I use for my work. If the device is infected, one needs to install an anti-virus from an external source. One needs to be able to work with the machine in a compromised environment where you cannot rely upon the internet connection, or even being able to install / uninstall software.

The push also to 'cloud storage' wrecks havoc with the notion of loading anything whatsoever into the device. It is a horribly unreliable system of dependence. The latest Google tablets don't have a card slot. There is no way to get data into them other than through the web. That makes diagnosis next to impossible in a compromised situation.

Honestly, it's quite depressing how quickly the world is running into a technological reliability disaster. I can't much bear the idea that every person must hand over every piece of their data to every company otherwise be unable to even switch on a computer.

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append delete #1. cthom06

I still have this idea that home servers will replace the cloud very soon. Hardware is just so damn cheap and bandwidth keeps getting cheaper too.

append delete #2. Grimmeh

Isn’t this nothing new? Isn’t what you were used to also a “horribly unreliable system of dependence” compared to the methods before that? To have to have electricity (i.e. depend on) to write a letter on a computer as compared to a typewriter or better yet, ink and paper; to have to even have a computer and depend on skills and knowledge of how to use it. But in our modern day, this dependency is becoming less of an issue, less of a problem. If you cannot adapt you are left behind, left obsolete; you become old. Or you can look for the next step.

Someone could just as well be frustrated they can’t repair the circuitry of a graphics card without specialty tools and diagrams only available through an “approved channel,” etc.

Sorry for the poor examples, this is rushed, but maybe you see my point.

append delete #3. mro +o bbses.info

i disagree about your history of bbses and the internet.
it wasnt so cut and dried and so fast.

also factor in that aol and compuserv were essentially commercial bbses.

regarding the cloud, yes they keep pushing it on. they also prove that it is unreliable because these companies shut down services and are compromised by computer criminals.

there is basically no need for the cloud when you take care of your stuff better than some company that doesnt care about you. you can run your own cloud at home.

append delete #4. May Walker

Don't be blue! It seems to me that we have the home computer/desktop/laptop back where we want it - in the hands of the professionals who actually need to get things done, i.e. editing, graphics, programming, accountancy, research etc. etc. All that other world of "devices" is there to satisy the entertainment needs of the masses, and by the way our own communication needs as well!

append delete #5. Kroc

@cthom06:

I still have this idea that home servers will replace the cloud very soon. Hardware is just so damn cheap and bandwidth keeps getting cheaper too.

But the software isn't going that direction, and there's no financial gain for any company in the current chain (internet service providers, OEMs and tertiary services like Facebook, Twitter &c.) to turn the Internet inside out like that and put the data and control into the hands of individuals. Sadly, more centralised is the way it is going and that's where the money is so it isn't going to go away any time this decade.

@Grimmeh:

Someone could just as well be frustrated they can’t repair the circuitry of a graphics card without specialty tools and diagrams only available through an “approved channel,” etc.

This much is true, and I know that, but I am not pontificating in a vacuum; this is my life in the here and now and this is my livelihood.

@mro +o bbses.info:

i disagree about your history of bbses and the internet.
it wasnt so cut and dried and so fast.

It was a generalisation, and I am aware that it wasn't so simple as that -- however, the key point is that the new was an inherently incompatible method compared to the old. One replaced the other because the two were not intertwined. A person using a Windows PC and AOL to access the 'Web was very far removed from using a telnet client to dial-in to BBSes one at a time. That was why it was a generational shift, rather than the usual yearly improvement of technology.

@May Walker:

It seems to me that we have the home computer/desktop/laptop back where we want it - in the hands of the professionals who actually need to get things done

But if getting those things done can only be possible through an app store, then that is a slippery slope into companies telling you what is and isn't possible for you to do. And what if what I want to do requires me being able to run portable software? Is my job simply not possible, outdated even, only because of the policy implementation of Microsoft and _not because of any physical limitation of the device_. We're talking about Microsoft and Apple making certain tasks redundant through nothing but arbitrary and selfish reasons. That's not progress, no matter how you paint it.

I can only hope for a resurgence of Linux, ironically via PC gaming, since Microsoft are hanging a noose around a large portion of that market.

append delete #6. cthom06

there's no financial gain for any company in the current chain [...] to turn the Internet inside out like that

Fortunately, this is still a realm driven by more sources of innovation than money.

The real problem I see is the users [read: all of us] (who, I'll admit, it's all too easy to point fingers at). The software isn't moving towards self-centralisation (coinage!) because it did a long time ago, albeit a bit ahead of it's time. We've had thin clients for decades; they just need some serious improvements to be usable over non-local networks.

But I can't talk, I have 2 VPSes and a 50/25 home connection with no inbound ports blocked, yet I'm using gmail, google drive, etc.

append delete #7. Kroc

I am typing this message from a real in-the-world Windows 8 machine. It is the worst operating system I have ever used. Vista was just bad engineering, but it was still essentially Windows. Windows 8 is like having your hands tied behind your back and then being hit over the head with a lead pipe. It is awful, uncomfortable and ineffective to an extreme degree. Using it on a touchpad is simply not possible.

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